A conservative playbook to fix the rhetoric and the rules
I. What went wrong—and what to keep
Keep the security spine. Two pillars are sound: targeted export controls on advanced compute and tools, and the new outbound‑investment screen—both aimed at genuine chokepoints. The Treasury rule took effect January 2, 2025; do not broaden it into a catch‑all capital wall. Keep it narrow, with clear licences and sunsets.
Fix the overreach. Across‑the‑board tariff hikes (e.g., Section 301 increases on EVs to 100%) punish allies, raise input costs, and invite retaliation—without improving security. Convert broad tariffs into evidence‑based trade remedies and trusted‑lane enforcement.
Stop equating “manufacturing” with “jobs”. Modern fabs are capital‑ and automation‑heavy. Compete for them by de‑risking siting (firm power, fast permits), not by out‑bidding allies project by project. The US already tightened NEPA timelines and page caps and overhauled grid interconnection; finish the job and make those reforms the “incentive”.
II. Conservative principles for a durable reset
- Security, not autarky. Protect chokepoints (advanced chips, tools, secure compute) with allied rules and licences; sunset and review regularly.
- Allies are force multipliers. Make “trusted trade is faster trade”: expand AEO/CTPAT mutual recognition so low‑risk cargo clears first; target enforcement at unknown shippers and de‑minimis gaming.
- Capacity over cheques. Out‑compete by guaranteeing megawatts and minutes (firm, clean power; predictable permits), not by writing bigger subsidies. FERC Orders 2023, 1920 and 1977 are the lever—use them.
- Taxes that reward investment, not lobbying. Restore neutral cost‑recovery (R&D), keep the base broad, rates competitive, and avoid bespoke carve‑outs. Current law’s Section 174 amortisation is a competitiveness drag—fix it cleanly.
- Law‑and‑order immigration that favors talent. Tight borders plus skills‑based inflows and a real startup parole/visa channel—simple, lawful, pro‑American dynamism.
III. The policy deck (what to announce and do in 100 days)
A. Trade & security: enforce, don’t escalate
- 301‑to‑remedies swap. Where 301 hikes now apply, instruct USTR/ITC to prioritise countervailing/anti‑dumping cases with transparent public records; publish injury evidence and allow price undertakings. Reserve 301 for proven market‑wide coercion.
- Trusted‑lane expansion. Direct CBP to expand AEO/CTPAT MRAs and publish an AEO “fast‑lane” dashboard (clearance times, inspection rates). Require known‑shipper IDs and full data on de‑minimis parcels from high‑risk lanes.
- Outbound clarity. Keep the Outbound Investment rule narrow: prohibited where national‑security risk is direct (sub‑7 nm logic, AI training chips), notified elsewhere, with passive investment safe harbours. Annual report with metrics and licence timelines.
B. Industrial policy: minutes and megawatts beat money
- Permit clock discipline. Implement CEQ NEPA Phase 2 time/page limits in agency SOPs and publish a single permit clock dashboard (median/90th‑percentile). Deem applications complete unless agencies flag deficiencies within 30 days.
- Grid fast‑track. Use FERC Order 2023 cluster studies to guarantee energisation dates for strategic loads; roll state compacts into Order 1920 long‑term planning and deploy Order 1977 backstop where corridors stall.
- “No MW, no money.” Condition any discretionary subsidy on a signed PPA/CfD (clean, firm power) and a dated interconnection slot. Publish the contract summary.
C. Tax & regulation: pro‑investment, rules‑based
- Fix cost recovery. Replace Section 174 amortisation with full expensing for domestic R&D, paired with anti‑abuse guardrails; keep the R&D credit; simplify accounting method changes per IRS guidance. (No bespoke carve‑outs.)
- Sunset‑proof credits. Time‑limit any new investment credits; require outcome metrics (MW connected, units shipped, on‑time delivery) rather than headcounts.
D. Immigration: tight border, open front door for skills
- Use what exists—now. Scale the revamped H‑1B beneficiary‑centric selection (cuts gaming), accelerate STEM green‑card backlogs with visa recapture, and give teeth to International Entrepreneur Parole while Congress considers a statutory startup visa.
- Wage‑indexed caps. Announce a proposal to tie high‑skill visa numbers to national unemployment and wage growth bands—automatic stabilisers with public triggers. (No discretion, no backlog games.)
- Enforcement first. Expand E‑Verify and surge adjudication at the border and in asylum courts; pair with lawful, skills‑oriented channels so the “front door” is faster than the fence.
E. Allies & climate: reciprocity, not copy‑paste
- Allied recognition. Offer “Buy Allied” treatment for NATO/GPA partners that extend reciprocal market access—better than blanket Buy American fights.
- Carbon reciprocity. Prefer product‑standard reciprocity to blanket climate tariffs; if allies run CBAM (EU charges from 2026), negotiate credits for US producers’ lower embedded emissions rather than staging a tariff exchange.
IV. The rhetoric reset (what to say)
- From “reshoring or bust” → “secure, not sever.” We will protect what matters—chips, tools, secure compute—while keeping trusted trade fast and cheap.
- From “jobs from cheques” → “speed is the incentive.” Firm power, fast permits, clear rules: investors come for certainty.
- From “tariffs as a creed” → “enforcement by evidence.” If there’s a subsidy or dumping, we’ll prove it and act—case by case.
- From “closed borders” → “law‑and‑order talent.” Tight border security and the world’s best front door for skills and founders.
V. Scoreboard (publish quarterly, not at re‑election time)
- Permits: median and 90th‑percentile NEPA timelines by sector (EAs ≤1 year, EISs ≤2 years; page caps 75/150–300).
- Power: MW of firm, low‑carbon capacity contracted for strategic sites; median interconnection time under Order 2023 cluster studies.
- Trade friction: AEO share of imports, clearance times for CTPAT/AEO vs non‑AEO cargo.
- Security hygiene: share of export‑control/outbound actions with licence pathways and sunset reviews.
- Tax competitiveness: average effective tax rate for new capex; share of R&D fully expensed under reformed §174.
VI. Why this works (and avoids a subsidy war)
- It targets security rather than punishing every import, reducing collateral damage to allies and US manufacturers that need foreign inputs. (Narrow controls + outbound screening, not blanket barriers.)
- It makes speed the incentive: NEPA Phase 2, Order 2023 interconnection, Orders 1920/1977 for transmission give investors what they actually price—time certainty.
- It is fiscally conservative: fewer blank cheques, more capacity (power, permits) and neutral tax treatment (R&D expensing) that raise productivity without permanent outlays.
- It rebuilds trust with partners by preferring AEO/CTPAT mutual recognition and case‑based remedies to headline tariffs—and by respecting allies’ climate instruments (CBAM) via reciprocity rather than retaliation.
Policy Boxes
Box A — “Security, not autarky”: the five‑point carving test
A measure passes if it is (1) a chokepoint technology; (2) with documented dual‑use risk; (3) amenable to allied alignment; (4) offers a licensing path; and (5) has a sunset/review baked in. (Think BIS chip rules + allied toolmaker alignment.)
Box B — The 100‑day wins
• Launch permit clock dashboard (CEQ/NEPA). • Publish AEO fast‑lane metrics (CBP). • Issue “No MW, No Money” subsidy guidance. • Send §174 expensing fix to Congress (one‑page bill). • Release Outbound licence guidance with safe harbours.
Box C — Talking points for allies
We are narrowing security to the real risks, speeding up lawful trade (AEO fast lanes), and competing on capacity—not subsidies. Where you price carbon (EU CBAM), we will recognise clean US production rather than slap flags on tariffs.
The punchline
A conservative course correction does not apologise for strength—it focuses it. Protect the crown jewels with allied rules; win investment with power and permits; discipline the tax code to reward real R&D; run a law‑and‑order, skills‑first immigration system; and measure everything. That is how America competes hard, spends smart, and keeps friends—without stumbling into an expensive, endless subsidy war.