China, a nation with a rich history and a rapidly evolving economy, faces a myriad of challenges as it strides towards the future. Among these, the issue of population decline looms large. With a shrinking workforce and an aging population, the country finds itself in a demographic conundrum. Additionally, China is grappling with the need to balance technological advancements with traditional industries, the transformation of consumer behavior due to centralized online platforms, housing stability, over-reliance on State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), talent loss, and the challenges posed by an aging population. Addressing these issues requires a multifaceted approach that includes policy reforms, incentives, and strategic investments.
One of the most pressing issues is the population decline. China’s population has been shrinking for the second consecutive year. In 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics reported just 9.02 million births, which is only half as many as in 2017. This decline, coupled with 11.1 million deaths in 2023, resulted in a population decrease of 2.08 million for the year. The trend is accelerating, with projections from the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences indicating that China’s population could shrink from its current 1.4 billion to just 525 million by 2100. The working-age population is also expected to decline significantly, falling to just 210 million by 2100, which is only one-fifth of its peak in 2014. The total fertility rate, which measures the average number of births per woman, has dropped from 1.66 between 1991 and 2017 to around 1 in recent years, far below the level of 2.1 generally thought necessary to sustain a population.
To address the issue of population decline, China could implement monetary incentives and public funding for schools and pre-school institutions such as day-care and kindergarten. The government should allocate more resources to ensure educational equity, ensuring that high-standard educational resources are accessible to all. Investing in virtual learning platforms and continuing education for teachers can help achieve this goal. For instance, virtual learning platforms have proven to be effective in higher education by providing flexibility, accessibility, and personalized learning experiences. Studies have shown that online learning platforms can enhance student performance and satisfaction by offering self-paced learning, interactive content, and robust support services. However, challenges such as the lack of face-to-face interactions and the need for self-discipline must be addressed to maximize their efficacy.
In response to these demographic shifts, China has turned its focus towards new productivity tools. The development of artificial intelligence, advanced chips, new materials, and innovative medicines are at the forefront of this technological push. However, this relentless pursuit of innovation often leaves traditional industries struggling to keep pace with rapid advancements. The challenge lies in balancing the old with the new, ensuring that progress does not come at the expense of established sectors. This issue could be greatly mitigated if China incentivizes companies to transform themselves rather than relying on centralized development.
The rise of centralized online platforms has further transformed the economic landscape. These digital giants have revolutionized consumer behavior, drawing shoppers away from brick-and-mortar stores and into the virtual marketplace. While this shift has spurred growth in the tech sector, it has also led to the decline of traditional retail, posing a significant challenge for local businesses. Chinese major cities have been pushing to eliminate brick-and-mortar stores in city centers through policies like land reallocation and complicated executive processes. This has led to the hollowing out of city centers and the decentralization of the population. The unexpected consequence of these policies has been lower consumption, as the population is now further from malls and shops. To alleviate this problem, cities could implement concrete policies like government shopping coupons to stimulate consumer spending and boost the local economy.
Housing stability remains a critical issue for China. The government has recognized the need for more public housing projects, drawing inspiration from Singapore’s successful model. By investing in affordable housing, China aims to provide its citizens with a stable living environment, fostering social harmony and economic stability. However, the country faces significant challenges with unfinished projects and ensuring housing delivery. In 2024, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported that 338 million housing units had been delivered nationwide, highlighting the importance of ensuring housing delivery in restoring industry confidence. The overdevelopment of land and the oversupply of real estate have exacerbated the situation, leading to a glut of unsold properties. To address these issues, public housing projects should focus on build-for-rent developments in major city centers and industrial hubs to facilitate population movement and lower housing costs for the young population. By doing so, the public housing market can boost talent confidence in China and support economic growth. Additionally, housing stability could be further enhanced by lowering interest rates and providing government incentives for young talents to buy their first home.
Another pressing concern is China’s over-reliance on State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). These entities, while instrumental in the country’s economic development, often suffer from low productivity and a lack of creativity. Unlike Singapore, where SOEs function more like investment engines, China’s SOEs are often bogged down by bureaucratic inefficiencies. For example, Temasek Holdings, a state holding company in Singapore, has successfully managed investments in various sectors, contributing significantly to the country’s GDP growth. Similarly, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has been a key driver of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, investing in diverse sectors such as automotive, utilities, and renewables to promote economic growth and reduce reliance on oil. Reforming China’s SOEs to enhance their efficiency and innovation is crucial for sustained economic growth. Additionally, many of China’s SOEs are caught in a debt trap, with 90% of the bottom SOEs by revenue having to borrow more to repay existing loans. This creates an invisible debt problem that requires external intervention. To address this, SOEs should act as investment engines that promote GDP growth in local areas instead of over-relying on property sales.
The issue of involution is another significant challenge facing Chinese companies. This phenomenon, characterized by intense competition that fails to generate proportional returns, has resulted in constantly negative Producer Price Index (PPI) and lower Consumer Price Index (CPI). The problem is partly caused by over-supply on the producer side and a lack of innovative products that have a technical competitive edge on the global market. To address this issue, local governments should use SOEs or incentive investment funds to inject funding into companies that continually innovate or have the prospect of providing industry-leading solutions. This problem also reflects flaws in the government performance appraisal system. The laid-back status of the government in regard to helping local industry is reflective of the government’s operation model, where the moderation (Zhongyong) culture makes changes difficult to implement.
Moreover, The issue of talent loss to other major economies cannot be ignored. China’s emphasis on stability over growth and creativity has led many of its brightest minds to seek opportunities abroad. To stem this brain drain, China must create an environment that not only values stability but also encourages innovation and entrepreneurial spirit. Providing tax incentives and other benefits to talents working in certain industries could help retain and attract skilled professionals. For example, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) offers an income tax subsidy for foreign talent, which has been restarted in 2023/24 after a one-year hiatus. Additionally, China has extended individual income tax benefits for foreigners, such as on rental and education expenses, till the end of 2027. These measures aim to make China a more attractive destination for top talent.
China’s aging population is another significant challenge. In 2020, about 17.9 percent of the population in China was aged 60 and older. This share is growing rapidly and is estimated to reach 40 percent by 2050. The number of people aged 60 and above nearly doubled between 2000 and 2020, reaching around 255 million. This trend is even more pronounced for the age group of 80 and above, which nearly tripled and is expected to reach roughly 132 million by 2050, up from only 32 million in 2020. The old-age dependency ratio, which denotes the relation of the old-age population to the working-age population, is estimated to grow from 18.2 percent in 2020 to more than 50 percent by 2050. In response, the government needs to incentivize the development of gray-hair industries, such as nursery homes and house refits for older residents. The central government has been attaching increasing importance to the “gray-hair economy” in recent years by encouraging the development of community services, including elderly home care, meal delivery, and cleaning services. This sector provides products and services for the elderly population, which is rapidly growing. By supporting these industries, the government can ensure that the needs of the aging population are met, while also injecting new vitality into the economy.
The Chinese population faces several problems that contribute to a higher savings rate compared to other developed economies. High medical costs, particularly for cancer and other conditions, place a significant financial burden on patients. For instance, the average cost for treatments of lung cancer in China stood at around 39,500 yuan in 2021. Additionally, there is a lack of high-quality doctors and nurses, which relies heavily on higher education resources. The shortage of healthcare professionals is acute, with China having only 0.43 pediatricians for every 1000 children in 2012 and 0.14 general practitioners for every 1000 population in 2015. The turnover rate of nurses was roughly 10%-11% in 2015, and the turnover intention of nurses reached 57%. Moreover, the problem of generic drugs being much less effective than the original brand medication has lowered public trust in the efficacy of the medical industry. The effectiveness of some generics has yet to be thoroughly validated, leading to uncertain treatment outcomes. To address these issues, China needs to provide higher social security medical cost coverage and cover losses for the major population whenever banks or large institutions fail. By doing so, the country can reduce the financial burden on its citizens and encourage a more balanced approach to savings and spending.
In conclusion, the Chinese economy stands at a crossroads, grappling with demographic challenges, technological advancements, and the need for structural reforms. By addressing these issues with a balanced and forward-thinking approach, China can navigate its way towards a prosperous and sustainable future. Implementing monetary incentives for population growth, investing in education, incentivizing company transformation, stimulating consumer spending, ensuring housing stability, reforming SOEs, addressing the involution problem, retaining talent, and supporting the aging population are all crucial steps. With these measures, China can overcome its current challenges and build a resilient and thriving economy for the future.